Bitcoin Could Crash 30% as Four-Year Cycle Bear Market

An investment firm just predicted bitcoin could drop another 30% in 2026, bringing it to around $47,600.

Is this fear-mongering or a realistic assessment?

Very realistic. It’s bitcoin, after all.

CK Zheng, founder of crypto investment firm ZX Squared Capital, told CoinDesk that “bitcoin’s price is convincingly in deep bear market territory now” and expects “a further 30% price drop during 2026 as the Iran war started.”

His reasoning? The four-year cycle.

Bitcoin has already nearly halved from its record high of over $126,000 in October 2025. At $68,000 today, it’s down about 46%. Another 30% drop would bring it to $47,600.

And here’s the thing: the pattern is playing out exactly as expected.

Bitcoin topped in October 2025—roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving. Historically, bitcoin’s price peaks about 16-18 months after a halving, followed by a bear market that typically lasts about a year.

So the cycle is repeating. Again.

And while some dismiss it as pattern-seeking or confirmation bias, I think the four-year cycle is real—and it’s driven by fundamentals, not just psychology.

Let me explain why this prediction is realistic, what the four-year cycle actually means, why institutional adoption is still shockingly small, and whether companies like Strategy can survive a 30% crash.

The Four-Year Cycle Is Real—And It’s Why Saylor Stays Confident

The four-year bitcoin cycle isn’t just a meme or a pattern that traders imagine. It’s rooted in bitcoin’s core mechanism: the halving.

Every four years, bitcoin’s mining reward gets cut in half. This is programmed into the protocol. It’s not speculation—it’s code.

At launch, miners received 50 BTC per block. After four halvings, they now receive 3.125 BTC per block. The next halving will cut that to 1.5625 BTC.

What does that do to supply?

It reduces the rate at which new bitcoin enters circulation. Demand stays roughly constant (or grows). Supply growth slows dramatically.

Basic economics: supply shock drives price up.

But not immediately. It takes time for the reduced supply to filter through the market. Historically, bitcoin’s price peaks about 16-18 months after the halving—not during it.

Then what happens?

The crash.

Speculative buyers who chased the rally start taking profits. Overleveraged traders get liquidated. Panic selling kicks in. And bitcoin enters a bear market that typically lasts about a year.

Then the cycle repeats.

This has happened over and over again.

And it’s the fundamental reason long-term investors like Michael Saylor are as confident as they are.

Saylor has diluted Strategy shares by 313% and is sitting on $7 billion in unrealized losses. But he’s not panicking. Because he understands the four-year cycle.

Bitcoin halves. Price drops quickly. Then it slowly recovers, breaks all-time highs, and continues climbing.

If you believe that pattern repeats, then current losses are just noise. You accumulate during the bear market, hold through the recovery, and profit when the next cycle peaks.

That’s Saylor’s bet. And it’s why he keeps buying even when bitcoin is down 46% from its high.

The four-year cycle isn’t guaranteed. But it’s not random either. It’s driven by bitcoin’s programmed supply reductions, and those reductions create predictable supply shocks.

So when CK Zheng says bitcoin could drop another 30% because the four-year cycle is playing out, I believe him.

Psychology Plays a Role—But Fundamentals Drive the Cycle

Zheng argues that the cycle is “extremely difficult to break due to individual investors’ psychological behaviors.”

Here’s his point: people buy during hype and sell during panic. That behavior reinforces the boom-and-bust pattern.

Is he right?

Partially. Psychology definitely plays a role.

When bitcoin is rallying and everyone’s talking about it hitting $200,000, retail investors pile in. Fear of missing out (FOMO) drives buying. That pushes prices even higher.

Then when bitcoin crashes 50%, those same investors panic. They sell at a loss. That accelerates the drop.

So psychology amplifies the cycle.

But I don’t think psychology creates the cycle.

The cycle is fundamentally driven by the halving. The supply shock is real. The 16-18 month lag to peak prices is consistent across multiple cycles. The subsequent bear market follows a predictable timeline.

Psychology makes the swings bigger—more euphoria at the top, more panic at the bottom—but the underlying pattern is rooted in bitcoin’s supply dynamics.

This matters because it means the cycle isn’t just irrational speculation.

If the cycle were purely psychological, it would be random. Sometimes bitcoin would peak 6 months after a halving. Sometimes 30 months. Sometimes it wouldn’t peak at all.

But it doesn’t behave randomly. It follows a fairly consistent pattern.

That suggests fundamentals are driving it, with psychology layered on top.

So when Zheng says human psychology makes the cycle hard to break, I agree—but I think he’s underselling the fundamental drivers.

The halving creates the supply shock. Psychology amplifies the reaction. Both matter.

Bitcoin Isn’t a Safe Haven Yet—But It’s Getting There

Zheng argues that bitcoin “still trades more like a speculative asset than a safe haven like gold.”

And we just covered how bitcoin dropped 5% when geopolitical risk spiked, while gold rallied.

So does that confirm bitcoin isn’t a safe haven?

Yes. Bitcoin doesn’t feel like a safe haven yet.

When Trump threatened Iran with “unconditional surrender” and oil spiked 11%, people didn’t rush into bitcoin. They rushed into gold and cash.

Bitcoin is still volatile. It’s still correlated with risk assets like tech stocks. It’s still speculative.

But here’s the thing: it’s getting there.

Why?

Institutional adoption.

Yes, it’s slower than the hype suggests. Yes, crypto ETFs and treasury companies are only 10% of the market (more on that in a moment).

But the trajectory is clear. BlackRock is launching bitcoin products. European banks are adopting crypto infrastructure. Governments are regulating instead of banning.

And most importantly: bitcoin went from a few cents to $68,000 in about 15 years.

That’s not a speculative bubble that popped and disappeared. That’s an asset that has survived multiple crashes, regulatory crackdowns, exchange collapses, and countless declarations of its death—and kept growing.

Is it a safe haven like gold? Not yet.

Will it become one? Maybe. In 10-20 years, if it continues surviving crises and maturing as an asset class.

But today? It’s still a speculative asset. And when geopolitical risk spikes, people reach for gold, not bitcoin.

Zheng is right about that.

Institutional Adoption Is Only 10%? That’s Surprising—And Bullish

Here’s something that genuinely surprised me:

Zheng says “the total size of crypto ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury companies is only around 10% of the whole crypto market.”

That surprises me. It felt like so much more.

Between BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF, Strategy’s massive accumulation, and all the headlines about institutional adoption, you’d think institutions already dominated the market.

But they don’t. They’re only 10%.

Which means 90% of the crypto market is still retail investors, speculators, and early adopters.

Is that bullish or bearish?

I think it’s bullish in the long run.

Here’s why:

If institutions are only 10% of the market now, and if institutional adoption keeps accelerating (BlackRock, European banks, more treasury companies), then there’s massive room for growth.

Retail speculation drove bitcoin from cents to $68,000. Imagine what happens when institutions allocate even 20-30% of the market.

But in the short term, it’s bearish.

Because it means the current price is still driven mostly by retail psychology. And retail investors panic during bear markets.

Institutions have longer time horizons. They don’t sell at the first 20% drop. They accumulate during drawdowns.

Retail? Retail sells during panic.

So if 90% of the market is retail, and if we’re entering a deeper bear phase of the four-year cycle, expect more selling pressure.

That’s consistent with Zheng’s prediction of another 30% drop.

But long-term? The fact that institutional adoption is still only 10% means there’s enormous upside if that percentage keeps climbing.

The Vicious Cycle Warning: Strategy’s Debt Problem

Here’s where Zheng’s analysis gets really interesting:

“Some Digital Asset Treasury firms may be forced to sell cryptos to meet certain debt servicing requirements during this bear market, which may create a vicious cycle.”

Is he talking about Strategy?

Almost certainly.

We covered Strategy’s $8.2 billion in debt and the need to refinance $6 billion in 2028. They’re paying $888 million a year in preferred dividends. And they’re sitting on $7 billion in unrealized losses.

So what happens if bitcoin drops another 30% to $47,600?

Strategy’s unrealized losses would balloon even further. Their debt servicing costs stay constant. And if bitcoin stays depressed long enough, they might face pressure to sell bitcoin to cover those costs.

That’s the vicious cycle.

If Strategy (or other treasury companies) start selling bitcoin to meet debt obligations, that adds selling pressure to the market. Bitcoin drops further. More treasury companies face pressure. More selling.

Vicious cycle.

But here’s the key question: Can Strategy survive a 30% drop?

Yes.

Michael Saylor said Strategy can survive even if bitcoin drops to $8,000 and stays there for 5 years.

Bitcoin at $47,600 is nowhere near $8,000. So Strategy has cushion.

They’re not forced sellers yet. They have debt management tools available until 2027. They can issue more shares if needed (though that dilutes shareholders further).

Will it be comfortable? No.

Will there be pressure? Absolutely.

But will the model collapse at $47,600? Probably not.

Now, if bitcoin drops to $30,000 or $20,000 and stays there for years? That’s a different scenario. At that point, the pressure becomes real.

But $47,600? Strategy can handle it.

The question is whether other treasury companies with weaker balance sheets and higher debt loads can handle it.

And that’s where the vicious cycle risk comes in.

What Happens if Bitcoin Drops to $47K?

So let’s play this out.

Bitcoin drops another 30% to around $47,600. The four-year cycle continues its bear phase. Retail investors panic. Some overleveraged traders get liquidated.

What happens to companies like Strategy?

Strategy survives. They’re built for this. Saylor’s entire thesis is based on surviving drawdowns and accumulating through bear markets.

Their unrealized losses grow. Shareholders get more nervous. But the company doesn’t collapse.

What happens to weaker treasury companies?

Some might be forced to sell. If they have debt they can’t service, if they can’t raise more capital, if they’re overleveraged—they become forced sellers.

And that creates selling pressure that accelerates the decline.

What happens to retail investors?

Panic. Capitulation. A lot of people who bought near $126,000 thinking bitcoin was going to $200,000 will sell at massive losses.

That’s the bottom formation process. It’s painful. It’s necessary. And it’s part of every bitcoin cycle.

What happens to long-term believers?

They accumulate. Just like they did in 2018 when bitcoin dropped to $3,000. Just like they did in 2022 when it dropped to $16,000.

If you believe in the four-year cycle, and if you believe bitcoin eventually recovers and breaks new highs, then a drop to $47,600 is a buying opportunity.

Not comfortable. Not easy. But an opportunity.

And what happens next?

If the pattern holds, the bear market lasts about a year. Then bitcoin slowly recovers. Then it breaks the previous all-time high. Then it surges to a new peak 16-18 months after the next halving.

Rinse. Repeat.

The four-year cycle continues.

What This Really Means

CK Zheng predicts bitcoin could crash another 30% to around $47,600 as the four-year cycle plays out.

Here’s what I think:

The prediction is realistic. It’s bitcoin. Volatility is part of the package. A 30% drop wouldn’t be unprecedented—it would be consistent with every previous bear phase.

The four-year cycle is real. It’s not just psychology. It’s driven by bitcoin’s halving mechanism, which creates programmed supply shocks every four years. That’s why long-term investors like Saylor stay confident despite massive unrealized losses.

Psychology amplifies the cycle but doesn’t create it. People buy during hype, sell during panic—that makes swings bigger. But the fundamental pattern is rooted in supply dynamics.

Bitcoin isn’t a safe haven yet, but it’s getting there. When geopolitical risk spikes, people reach for gold and cash, not bitcoin. But institutional adoption is growing, and bitcoin has survived 15 years of crashes. Give it another 10-20 years.

Institutional adoption is surprisingly only 10% of the market. That’s lower than expected given all the hype. But it’s also bullish long-term—there’s massive room for growth as institutions allocate more capital.

The vicious cycle warning is real. Some treasury companies with weaker balance sheets might be forced to sell bitcoin to service debt. That creates downward pressure. But Strategy can survive $47K—Saylor said they can handle $8K for 5 years.

If bitcoin drops to $47K, Strategy survives but weaker companies might not. That creates forced selling, which accelerates the decline. But for long-term believers, it’s an accumulation opportunity.

The four-year cycle continues. Bear market lasts about a year. Then recovery. Then new all-time highs. Then the next peak. Rinse and repeat.

Is Zheng’s 30% crash prediction guaranteed? No.

But is it realistic? Absolutely.

And if you understand the four-year cycle, you’re not panicking. You’re positioning for the next phase.